🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

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⚡ Real-Time Engine

Status: RUNNING Polls: 189 Last Score: 2026-03-24 17:41 Last News: 2026-03-24 17:33 Last Trump: 2026-03-24 17:32

Trading Signal

BUY_OIL

HIGH confidence CAUTION Strength: 0.68 Trend: 45d

Composite Sentiment

+0.700

🟢 BULLISH | 23 articles from 8 sources
Last refresh: 2026-03-24 17:33

WTI Crude Oil

$91.09

per barrel

EIA Inventory

+6.2 MM bbl

BEARISH_BUILD

Market Regime

RISK OFF

Supply Outlook

TIGHTENING

Strait of Hormuz closure blocks ~20% of global crude trade
Ongoing Middle East conflict threatens additional oil infrastructure
Japan's strategic stockpile release provides partial short-term supply offset

Demand Outlook

STABLE

Valero Texas refinery shutdown reduces crude processing demand by ~380kbpd
Global economic impact of Middle East conflict has not yet significantly hit oil demand
India private sector growth slowdown poses minor downside demand risk

News Sources

GoogleNews: 4
FMP: 4
Investing.com: 4
Investing.com-Cmd: 3
Finnhub:Reuters: 3
AlJazeera: 2
OilPrice.com: 2
TruthSocial: 1

⏱ Micro Velocity (15m scalping)ALERT

↗ +0.050

15m

↗ +0.050

30m

↗ +0.050

状态

DRIFTING_UP

缓慢上行 ↗

动量: +0.0500 平均Δ: +0.0500 ⚠ 短线显著变化!

⚡ Sentiment Velocity

↗ +0.400

12h

↗ +2.000

24h

↘ -0.100

48h

↘ -0.150

趋势

REVERSING

趋势拐点

平均速度: +0.5375/day | 加速度: +0.5500 (短期加速快于长期)

🔀 Price × Sentiment Divergence

窗口	象限	价格Δ	情绪Δ	背离
1h	价格偏强	+0.72 (+0.8%)	+0.0500	○
4h	情绪回暖	-0.56 (-0.6%)	+0.1500	○
24h	确认下跌	-7.25 (-7.4%)	-0.1000	○

➤ 主窗口(1h): 价格走强但情绪未跟上

⚠ 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)

🤖 AI Analysis — doubao-seed-2-0-pro-260215

+0.700

Confidence: 0.85

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking ~20% of global oil supply
No de-escalation confirmed: Iran dismissed Trump peace talks as fake, US-Israeli strikes continue
Airstrike on pro-Iran PMF in Iraq signals further Middle East conflict spillover

Trading: {"action": "LONG", "size": "half", "stop_loss": "WTI breaks below $87.0", "take_profit": "WTI hits $97.0", "timeframe": "intraday"}

{"action": "做多", "size": "半仓", "stop_loss": "WTI跌破87美元", "take_profit": "WTI触及97美元", "timeframe": "日内"}

Key Risks: Immediate diplomatic breakthrough between US and Iran leads to full reopening of Hormuz | Large coordinated SPR release from IEA members offsets supply shortage

美伊迅速达成外交突破，霍尔木兹海峡全面恢复通航 | 国际能源署成员国协调大规模释放战略石油储备，抵消供应缺口

Active Middle East conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving strong bullish momentum for WTI, with expected intraday volatility of ~2.5-3%. Japan's stockpile release and refinery shutdowns are minor offsets that do not counter the core supply risk premium.

中东持续冲突及霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭推动WTI强劲上行，预计日内波幅约2.5-3%。日本释放石油储备和炼厂关停是次要利空，不足以抵消核心供应风险溢价。

▶ Reasoning / 推理过程

First, the highest-priority P1 signals dominate: confirmed active military conflict between Iran and Israel/US, plus the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating extreme supply disruption risk. Iran's rejection of Trump's peace talks and the latest airstrike on pro-Iran forces in Iraq confirm no near-term de-escalation. Minor bearish signals (Valero refinery shutdown, Japan stockpile release) are low-priority and only partially offset the bullish trend, with no P1-P2 bearish signals to override the core bullish thesis. Confidence is high as multiple independent sources confirm Hormuz closure and ongoing conflict.

首先，最高优先级的P1信号主导：伊朗与以色列/美国的军事冲突仍在持续，且霍尔木兹海峡已被实际关闭，造成极端供应中断风险。伊朗否认特朗普的和谈说法、以及最新对伊拉克亲伊朗武装的空袭确认短期无降级可能。次要利空信号（瓦莱罗炼厂关停、日本释放储备）优先级较低，仅能部分抵消上行趋势，无P1-P2级别的利空信号能推翻核心看涨逻辑。多个独立信源确认海峡关闭和冲突持续，因此信心较高。

📊 Per-Article Analysis (20 items)

Date	Source	Article	Supply	Demand	Geo Risk	Impact	Reasoning
2026-03-24 17:30	Investing.com-Cmd	European stocks rise and oil climbs as worries around Iran w	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Market price action commentary that reflects already priced-in risk, no new fundamental signal.
2026-03-24 17:27	OilPrice.com	China’s Green Energy Stocks Surge as Middle East War Upends	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	LOW	-0.03	Green equity market rally reflects long-term demand expectations, no immediate impact on oil fundamentals.
2026-03-24 17:12	Investing.com-Cmd	Iran sends waves of missiles into Israel, dismisses Trump’s	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.80	Confirmed rejection of diplomatic talks eliminates near-term de-escalation hopes, extending the period of supply risk.
2026-03-24 17:00	GoogleNews	US postpones strikes on Iran, but a global energy crisis is	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.10	Postponed strikes do not signal de-escalation, and confirmation of deepening energy crisis reinforces existing supply ri
2026-03-24 17:00	Investing.com-Cmd	Valero shuts Texas refinery after explosion rocks diesel uni	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	LOW	-0.10	380kbpd refinery shutdown reduces crude processing demand, a minor bearish offset fully priced in.
2026-03-24 16:59	GoogleNews	How Iran Has Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz - Bloom	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+1.00	Tier-S source confirms closure of the world's most critical oil shipping lane, creating extreme immediate supply risk.
2026-03-24 16:43	AlJazeera	Deadly air attack hits pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.30	New airstrike on pro-Iran forces signals conflict spillover, raising risk of further regional escalation that threatens
2026-03-24 16:43	GoogleNews	China Eases Planned Increase to Gas Prices for 300 Million D	NEUTRAL	BULLISH	LOW	+0.08	Lower gas price increases may support Chinese fuel demand, a minor near-term bullish offset.
2026-03-24 16:14	AlJazeera	Despite Trump’s peace talk claims, US-Israeli attacks contin	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.60	Confirmed ongoing military operations prove no de-escalation is in effect, sustaining supply risk premium.
2026-03-24 14:45	Finnhub:Reuters	Iran war fuel crisis gives electric cars a long-term boost -	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	LOW	-0.05	Long-term demand shift to EVs has no near-term impact on current oil market fundamentals.
2026-03-24 14:42	OilPrice.com	Japan Moves to Release Oil Stockpiles as Energy Crisis Deepe	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	LOW	-0.15	Minor supply offset from Japanese stockpile release, too small to counterbalance Hormuz-related supply losses.
2026-03-24 14:25	Finnhub:Reuters	Iran war deals harder blow to natural gas than oil - Reuters	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Natural gas market commentary with no material impact on WTI crude fundamentals.
2026-03-24 14:12	Investing.com	BOJ chief expects limited impact on inflation from proposed	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Stale Japanese monetary policy news with no direct impact on oil markets, fully priced in.
2026-03-24 13:13	Investing.com	India’s private sector growth hits 3-year low as Middle East	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	LOW	-0.07	Minor demand headwind from slowing Indian growth, partially offsetting bullish supply risks.
2026-03-24 13:09	FMP	Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 Futures Fall As Iran Says '	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Equity market commentary with no direct fundamental impact on oil supply or demand.
2026-03-24 13:01	Finnhub:Reuters	In Iran fallout, US shares hold up better than global rivals	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Equity market relative performance commentary with no impact on oil fundamentals.
2026-03-24 12:43	FMP	TotalEnergies Signs Agreements with U.S. Department of Inter	NEUTRAL	BULLISH	NONE	+0.05	Wind project cancellation has minimal long-term impact on oil demand, no near-term effect on current markets.
2026-03-24 12:21	FMP	Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Inch Up, Brent Crude Rises A	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Market commentary that confirms existing trend but provides no new fundamental information.
2026-03-24 12:18	Investing.com	BOJ seen hiking as early as April despite soft inflation, IN	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Japanese monetary policy speculation has no direct impact on global oil markets.
2026-03-23 22:29	TruthSocial	I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AN	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	-0.10	Trump's peace talk claim was explicitly denied by Iran, and is stale with minimal remaining impact.

Signal Notes

Rolling 7-day sentiment: +0.679
Direction: BULLISH for 45 consecutive period(s)
Sentiment velocity: +0.5375/day (趋势拐点)
Micro(DRIFTING_UP): momentum +0.0500, 缓慢上行 ↗
⚠ MICRO ALERT: Significant short-term sentiment shift detected
Divergence(1h): PRICE_STRENGTH (price +0.72, sent +0.0500)
⚠ Divergence: 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)
CAUTION: Sentiment trend reversal detected

🔍 Manual Analysis Input

📢 Trump / Truth Social (10 posts, 2 oil-relevant)

Time	Post
2026-03-24 13:48	Democrats are desperate to keep illegals, no matter how bad or dangerous they me be, in the Country. They want them to VOTE! That’s why they are fight
2026-03-24 12:12	RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/116282191339559931
2026-03-24 11:26	OIL White House to pay TotalEnergies $1 billion to kill off East Coast wind farm projects. TotalEnergies to invest around $1 billion — the value of its re
2026-03-24 07:18	There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAP
2026-03-23 22:29	RT @ realDonaldTrump I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were
2026-03-23 22:29	OIL RT @ realDonaldTrump I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AN
2026-03-23 22:28	For years, Democrats ignored Violent and Vicious Crime of all shapes, sizes, colors, and types. Violent Criminals who should have been locked up were
2026-03-23 22:10	Trump administration cancels $109M in environmentally focused transportation grants for Colorado: https:// coloradosun.com/2025/12/16/tru mp-administr
2026-03-23 22:09	Questions Grow as Lt. Michael Byrd, Who Shot Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, Operates a Taxpayer-Funded Home Daycare as $190 Million in Federal Child Care Fu
2026-03-23 22:09	https://www. theepochtimes.com/us/oklahoma- black-lives-matter-leader-indicted-over-alleged-3-15-million-embezzlement-5957229 [Link: Oklahoma Black Li

Sentiment History

Timestamp	Score	Direction	Confidence	WTI	EIA Signal	Regime
2026-03-24 17:41	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.09	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:54	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$90.37	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:38	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$90.31	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:32	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$90.28	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:25	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$90.35	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:15	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$90.78	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:05	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:57	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.24	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:51	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$90.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:34	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:48	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$92.05	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:41	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:33	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.65	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:26	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.88	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:16	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.48	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:09	+0.800	BULLISH	0.85	$91.57	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:02	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:53	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:46	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.81	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:39	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.92	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:30	+0.650	BULLISH	0.80	$91.93	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:14	+0.700	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:29	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.53	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:11	+0.550	BULLISH	0.75	$91.40	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:02	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.19	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:55	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.34	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:47	+0.700	BULLISH	0.75	$91.43	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:22	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:14	+0.600	BULLISH	0.78	$91.52	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:57	+0.600	BULLISH	0.82	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:41	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.23	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:34	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$91.17	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:24	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$91.37	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:16	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$90.50	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 08:59	+0.200	BULLISH	0.65	$90.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:53	+0.500	BULLISH	0.75	$90.38	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:45	+0.300	BULLISH	0.65	$90.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:32	+0.300	BULLISH	0.72	$90.01	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:23	+0.050	NEUTRAL	0.65	$89.64	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:17	+0.250	BULLISH	0.62	$89.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND