🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

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⚡ Real-Time Engine

Status: RUNNING Polls: 170 Last Score: 2026-03-24 14:34 Last News: 2026-03-24 14:35 Last Trump: 2026-03-24 14:35

Trading Signal

BUY_OIL

HIGH confidence CAUTION Strength: 0.66 Trend: 36d

Composite Sentiment

+0.650

🟢 BULLISH | 21 articles from 8 sources
Last refresh: 2026-03-24 14:35

WTI Crude Oil

$91.21

per barrel

EIA Inventory

+6.2 MM bbl

BEARISH_BUILD

Market Regime

RISK OFF

Supply Outlook

TIGHTENING

Middle East conflict risks disrupting 20% of global oil trade via Strait of Hormuz
Valero Port Arthur 380kbpd refinery shutdown reducing crude processing
Temporary Iran sanctions easing partially offsets supply risks, but Japan SPR release is marginal

Demand Outlook

STABLE

India private sector growth hits 3-year low, minor demand headwind
Airlines cancel Middle East flights, marginal jet fuel demand impact
Near-term demand largely resilient despite geopolitical volatility

News Sources

GoogleNews: 5
Investing.com: 4
FMP: 3
TruthSocial: 3
AlJazeera: 2
Finnhub:Reuters: 2
Investing.com-Cmd: 1
OilPrice.com: 1

⏱ Micro Velocity (15m scalping)ALERT

→ +0.000

15m

→ +0.000

30m

→ +0.000

↗ +0.100

状态

SURGING

急速上行 🔥

动量: +0.0100 平均Δ: +0.0250 ⚠ 短线显著变化!

⚡ Sentiment Velocity

↗ +1.400

12h

↗ +1.600

24h

↘ -0.050

48h

↗ +0.325

趋势

ACCELERATING

加速上行

平均速度: +0.8188/day | 加速度: +1.0750 (短期加速快于长期)

🔀 Price × Sentiment Divergence DIVERGENT

窗口	象限	价格Δ	情绪Δ	背离
1h	吸筹信号	-0.44 (-0.5%)	+0.1000	●
4h	横盘	-0.50 (-0.6%)	+0.0000	○
24h	价格偏弱	-7.95 (-8.0%)	-0.0500	○

➤ 主窗口(1h): 价格下跌但情绪转强 — 低位吸筹信号

⚠ 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)

🤖 AI Analysis — doubao-seed-2-0-pro-260215

+0.650

Confidence: 0.85

Iran missile strikes on Israel, active military escalation in Middle East
Iran denies US negotiations, invalidating Trump's de-escalation claims
Valero 380kbpd Port Arthur refinery shutdown tightening product/supply balance

Trading: {"action": "LONG", "size": "half", "stop_loss": "WTI breaks below $89.00/bbl", "take_profit": "WTI hits $95.00/bbl", "timeframe": "intraday"}

{"action": "做多", "size": "半仓", "stop_loss": "WTI跌破89美元/桶", "take_profit": "WTI触及95美元/桶", "timeframe": "日内"}

Key Risks: Trump announces unexpected de-escalation that temporarily reduces strike risk | IEA coordinated SPR release offsets supply disruption risks

特朗普宣布意外的局势缓和措施，暂时降低打击风险 | IEA协同释放战略石油储备抵消供应中断风险

Active military escalation between Iran and Israel remains the dominant driver of oil prices, pushing WTI to expected intraday volatility of ~2.5% with a clear bullish bias, offset partially by de-escalation rhetoric and reserve release signals.

伊朗和以色列之间的军事冲突升级是当前油价的核心驱动因素，预计WTI日内波动约2.5%，存在明确的看涨倾向，缓和言论和储备释放信号会部分抵消涨幅。

▶ Reasoning / 推理过程

First, the P1 signal of Iran launching missile strikes on Israel and denying negotiations is the highest priority, confirming active military conflict that threatens Middle East oil supplies and shipping lanes, with minimal time decay as it was reported 1 hour ago. Second, the Valero 380kbpd refinery shutdown provides secondary bullish supply support, while Trump's postponed strike announcement is largely invalidated by Iran's rejection, carrying low impact as a P4 negotiation signal. Third, Japan's planned SPR release and India's weak private sector growth are minor bearish offsets, but are overridden by the P1 conflict signal. EIS is set at 72, consistent with 1.5-3% expected moves for active military conflict, with 65 direction reflecting moderate to high bullish conviction.

首先，伊朗向以色列发射导弹并否认与美国谈判的P1级信号优先级最高，确认中东地区军事冲突升级，威胁该地区石油供应和航运通道，该信号发布仅1小时，时间衰减极微。其次，Valero 38万桶/日的阿瑟港炼厂关闭提供次级看涨供应支撑，而特朗普宣布推迟打击伊朗的言论被伊朗否认后有效性大幅降低，属于P4级谈判信号，影响有限。第三，日本计划释放石油储备和印度私营部门增长放缓是小幅看跌抵消因素，但被P1级冲突信号覆盖。EIS设为72，符合活跃军事冲突下1.5-3%的预期波动，方向65反映中高看涨信心。

📊 Per-Article Analysis (20 items)

Date	Source	Article	Supply	Demand	Geo Risk	Impact	Reasoning
2026-03-24 14:12	Investing.com	BOJ chief expects limited impact on inflation from proposed	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Unrelated to oil markets, no impact.
2026-03-24 14:00	Investing.com-Cmd	Iran sends waves of missiles into Israel, dismisses Trump’s	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+1.00	P1 active military conflict signal, confirms escalation and eliminates near-term de-escalation, maximum bullish impact.
2026-03-24 13:54	GoogleNews	Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict persists -	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	P6 market commentary reflecting existing price action, no new directional signal.
2026-03-24 13:13	Investing.com	India’s private sector growth hits 3-year low as Middle East	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	NONE	-0.15	P5 demand signal, minor headwind for emerging market oil demand, limited impact.
2026-03-24 13:12	GoogleNews	Just want to have as much oil in system as possible: Trump a	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	-0.25	P2 policy signal of temporary Iran sanctions easing, moderate bearish supply impact partially offset by conflict risks.
2026-03-24 13:09	GoogleNews	Japan to release state oil stockpiles this week, 2nd time am	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	NONE	-0.15	P2 policy signal, small SPR release provides minor bearish offset to supply risks.
2026-03-24 12:21	AlJazeera	US markets surge after Trump announces he’s postponing strik	BEARISH	BULLISH	MEDIUM	-0.20	P4 negotiation signal, largely invalidated by Iran's denial of talks, minor temporary de-escalation impact that is alrea
2026-03-24 12:18	Investing.com	BOJ seen hiking as early as April despite soft inflation, IN	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Monetary policy commentary unrelated to oil markets, no impact.
2026-03-24 11:42	Finnhub:Reuters	Airlines cancel more flights as Middle East conflict escalat	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	MEDIUM	-0.10	P5 demand signal, minor jet fuel demand reduction from flight cancellations, very low impact.
2026-03-24 11:27	AlJazeera	Large pro-government rallies held in Tehran	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.10	Signals Iranian domestic support for hardline stance, reduces de-escalation probability, minor bullish impact.
2026-03-24 09:51	GoogleNews	Oil rises with Brent crossing $100 a barrel again as Middle	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	P6 market commentary reflecting existing price action, no new signal.
2026-03-24 09:50	FMP	Valero shuts Texas refinery after explosion rocks diesel uni	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.20	380kbpd refinery shutdown reduces crude demand in near term but tightens product supplies, moderate bullish impact.
2026-03-24 09:48	Investing.com	Japan’s core inflation slows below BOJ target, complicates r	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Japanese macro data unrelated to oil markets, no impact.
2026-03-24 09:46	OilPrice.com	Chinese Publication Claims U.S. Has Two Months of Rare Earth	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Related to military hardware supply, no direct near-term impact on oil supply/demand.
2026-03-24 09:06	FMP	Australia's Santos temporarily shuts Darwin LNG plant amid M	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	LNG supply disruption, no direct impact on crude oil markets.
2026-03-24 08:53	FMP	Disney Missed Out on Monday's Market Rally. Is It a Red Flag	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Unrelated to oil markets, no impact.
2026-03-24 08:44	Finnhub:Reuters	Shares jittery, oil rebounds as fragile relief rally sours -	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	P6 market commentary on price action, no new fundamental signal.
2026-03-24 06:17	TruthSocial	Chris Van Hollen Accuses Trump Of 'Lying' About Iran Talks A	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Political commentary on Iran talks, no new policy or signal, irrelevant for pricing.
2026-03-24 05:49	TruthSocial	Tim Walz Demands To Know Which Officials Traded Stocks Befor	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Political commentary on insider trading allegations, no impact on oil fundamentals.
2026-03-23 22:29	TruthSocial	I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AN	BEARISH	BULLISH	MEDIUM	-0.20	P4 negotiation signal, largely invalidated by Iran's denial of talks, minor bearish impact that has decayed significantl

Signal Notes

Rolling 7-day sentiment: +0.657
Direction: BULLISH for 36 consecutive period(s)
Sentiment velocity: +0.8188/day (加速上行)
Micro(SURGING): momentum +0.0100, 急速上行 🔥
⚠ MICRO ALERT: Significant short-term sentiment shift detected
Divergence(1h): ACCUMULATION_SIGNAL (price -0.44, sent +0.1000)
⚠ Divergence: 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)
CAUTION: Price-sentiment divergence (ACCUMULATION_SIGNAL)

🔍 Manual Analysis Input

📢 Trump / Truth Social (11 posts, 3 oil-relevant)

Time	Post
2026-03-24 13:48	Democrats are desperate to keep illegals, no matter how bad or dangerous they me be, in the Country. They want them to VOTE! That’s why they are fight
2026-03-24 12:12	RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/116282191339559931
2026-03-24 07:18	There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAP
2026-03-24 06:17	OIL Chris Van Hollen Accuses Trump Of 'Lying' About Iran Talks After President Announces 5-Day Pause On Attacks In Tehran. Chris Van Hollen accused Trump
2026-03-24 05:49	OIL Tim Walz Demands To Know Which Officials Traded Stocks Before Trump's Potential Iran Ceasefire Announcement: 'Americans Need To Know'. Tim Walz called
2026-03-23 22:29	RT @ realDonaldTrump I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were
2026-03-23 22:29	OIL RT @ realDonaldTrump I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AN
2026-03-23 22:28	For years, Democrats ignored Violent and Vicious Crime of all shapes, sizes, colors, and types. Violent Criminals who should have been locked up were
2026-03-23 22:10	Trump administration cancels $109M in environmentally focused transportation grants for Colorado: https:// coloradosun.com/2025/12/16/tru mp-administr
2026-03-23 22:09	Questions Grow as Lt. Michael Byrd, Who Shot Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, Operates a Taxpayer-Funded Home Daycare as $190 Million in Federal Child Care Fu

Sentiment History

Timestamp	Score	Direction	Confidence	WTI	EIA Signal	Regime
2026-03-24 14:34	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:48	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$92.05	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:41	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:33	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.65	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:26	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.88	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:16	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.48	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:09	+0.800	BULLISH	0.85	$91.57	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:02	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:53	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:46	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.81	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:39	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.92	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:30	+0.650	BULLISH	0.80	$91.93	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:14	+0.700	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:29	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.53	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:11	+0.550	BULLISH	0.75	$91.40	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:02	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.19	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:55	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.34	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:47	+0.700	BULLISH	0.75	$91.43	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:22	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:14	+0.600	BULLISH	0.78	$91.52	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:57	+0.600	BULLISH	0.82	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:41	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.23	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:34	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$91.17	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:24	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$91.37	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:16	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$90.50	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 08:59	+0.200	BULLISH	0.65	$90.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:53	+0.500	BULLISH	0.75	$90.38	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:45	+0.300	BULLISH	0.65	$90.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:32	+0.300	BULLISH	0.72	$90.01	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:23	+0.050	NEUTRAL	0.65	$89.64	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:17	+0.250	BULLISH	0.62	$89.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:10	+0.220	BULLISH	0.62	$89.48	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:55	+0.400	BULLISH	0.68	$88.77	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:40	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$88.63	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:35	+0.350	BULLISH	0.62	$88.65	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:04	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$89.10	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:58	+0.300	BULLISH	0.58	$89.03	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:51	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$89.02	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:43	+0.250	BULLISH	0.60	$88.98	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:21	+0.250	BULLISH	0.72	$89.33	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND