🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

First, Trump's de-escalation announcement (P4 signal) is the dominant factor, having already driven a $9+ drop in WTI as near-term strike risk is priced out, though residual risk remains as the operation was previously approved. Second, Ukraine's strike on Russian oil infrastructure (P1 type, 12-hour half-life, ~3 hours since published, 75% impact remaining) creates minor bullish supply risk but is far less impactful than Iran-related risks. Third, all other signals (Russian fiscal delay, U.S. diesel supply plans, analyst commentary) are either non-fundamental, low-weight, or already priced in, with minimal net impact. The EIS falls in the 41-60 range as expected volatility is ~1.2%, consistent with moderate event risk.

首先，特朗普的缓和声明（P4级信号）是主导因素，随着近期打击风险被定价，WTI已下跌超过9美元，但由于行动计划此前已获批，剩余风险仍然存在。其次，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯石油设施（P1类事件，半衰期12小时，发布至今约3小时，剩余75%影响）带来小幅看涨供应风险，但影响远低于伊朗相关风险。第三，其余信号（俄罗斯财政政策延迟、美国柴油供应计划、分析师评论）要么不影响基本面、权重低，要么已被定价，净影响极小。EIS处于41-60区间，符合预期1.2%的波动幅度，对应中等事件风险。