🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

First, the Trump 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz is a P1 military threat signal with highest priority, as any disruption to the strait would cut 20% of global oil supply. Time decay is minimal as the statement was published ~24 hours ago with a 48-hour event half-life for conflict escalation. The confirmed degradation of Iranian military capabilities reduces but does not eliminate the risk of supply disruption, as the ultimatum remains active. Lower-priority signals including the US-Canada trade war commentary and single-company operational updates have no material impact on WTI fundamentals.

首先，特朗普针对伊朗霍尔木兹海峡发出的48小时最后通牒属于最高优先级的P1军事威胁信号，该海峡一旦中断将影响全球20%的石油供应。该声明发布仅约24小时，冲突升级类事件半衰期为48小时，时间衰减效应极小。伊朗军事能力已被削弱的事实降低但并未消除供应中断风险，因为最后通牒仍处于有效期内。美国加拿大贸易战评论、单一公司运营动态等低优先级信号对WTI基本面无实质性影响。