🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

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⚡ Real-Time Engine

Status: RUNNING Polls: 207 Last Score: 2026-03-24 20:12 Last News: 2026-03-24 20:13 Last Trump: 2026-03-24 20:13

Trading Signal

BUY_OIL

HIGH confidence CAUTION Strength: 0.71 Trend: 55d

Composite Sentiment

+0.750

🟢 BULLISH | 15 articles from 9 sources
Last refresh: 2026-03-24 20:13

WTI Crude Oil

$91.10

per barrel

EIA Inventory

+6.2 MM bbl

BEARISH_BUILD

Market Regime

RISK OFF

Supply Outlook

TIGHTENING

Strait of Hormuz disruption risk from ongoing Iran-Israel conflict
Valero Port Arthur refinery shutdown post-explosion
Indian refiners avoiding Iranian oil despite U.S. waivers

Demand Outlook

STABLE

No material negative demand signals from current macro data
Refinery throughput impacts from unplanned outages offset by tight product markets

News Sources

AlJazeera: 3
Investing.com-Cmd: 2
Finnhub:Reuters: 2
OilPrice.com: 2
FMP: 2
GoogleNews: 1
TruthSocial: 1
Investing.com: 1
SeekingAlpha: 1

⏱ Micro Velocity (15m scalping)ALERT

→ +0.000

15m

↗ +0.150

30m

↗ +0.100

↘ -0.100

状态

CHOPPY

短线震荡 ⚡

动量: +0.0550 平均Δ: +0.0375 ⚠ 短线显著变化!

⚡ Sentiment Velocity

↗ +0.400

12h

↗ +1.060

24h

↗ +1.200

48h

↘ -0.025

趋势

REVERSING

趋势拐点

平均速度: +0.6588/day | 加速度: +0.4250 (短期加速快于长期)

🔀 Price × Sentiment Divergence DIVERGENT

窗口	象限	价格Δ	情绪Δ	背离
1h	派发预警	+0.68 (+0.8%)	-0.1000	●
4h	情绪回暖	+0.73 (+0.8%)	+0.1000	○
24h	吸筹信号	-7.05 (-7.2%)	+0.3000	●

➤ 主窗口(1h): 价格上涨但情绪走弱 — 高位派发预警

⚠ 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)

🤖 AI Analysis — doubao-seed-2-0-pro-260215

+0.750

Confidence: 0.88

Iran missile attack on Israel rejecting de-escalation, raising Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risk
Valero Port Arthur refinery explosion shutting major processing capacity, tightening refined product markets
Indian refiners avoiding Iranian oil despite U.S. waivers due to shipping/insurance risks, reducing available global supply

Trading: {"action": "LONG", "size": "half", "stop_loss": "WTI breaks below $89.00", "take_profit": "$94.00", "timeframe": "intraday"}

{"action": "做多", "size": "半仓", "stop_loss": "WTI跌破89美元", "take_profit": "94美元", "timeframe": "日内"}

Key Risks: Unexpected U.S.-Iran de-escalation agreement that removes Strait of Hormuz risk | Massive emergency SPR release to offset supply tightness

美伊意外达成降温协议，消除霍尔木兹海峡风险 | 美国大规模释放战略石油储备以抵消供应紧张

Active Middle East military escalation and unplanned refinery outages drive high bullish momentum for WTI, with expected intraday volatility of 1.5-3.0% aligned with EIS 72.

中东军事升级态势持续叠加炼厂意外停产，推动WTI原油呈现强劲上涨动能，日内预期波动1.5-3.0%，对应EIS得分72。

▶ Reasoning / 推理过程

First, the P1 active military signal from Iran's missile attack on Israel and rejection of de-escalation dominates, as it elevates risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption which accounts for ~20% of global oil trade. Second, unplanned shutdown of Valero's major Port Arthur refinery tightens immediate supply, adding bullish pressure. Third, Indian refiners avoiding Iranian oil despite waivers reduces available supply, confirming near-term market tightness. The earlier Trump negotiation signal is overridden by Iran's explicit rejection of talks, while macro spillover impacts on non-oil sectors have negligible effect on crude fundamentals.

首先，伊朗对以色列发动导弹袭击并拒绝降温的P1级主动军事信号占主导，提升了占全球石油贸易约20%的霍尔木兹海峡的中断风险。其次，Valero位于阿瑟港的大型炼厂意外停产收紧了短期供应，进一步增加上涨压力。第三，尽管美国解除了对伊石油制裁，印度炼油商仍因航运和保险风险规避伊朗原油，减少了可供应的原油规模，确认了短期市场紧俏态势。此前特朗普的谈判信号被伊朗明确拒绝谈判的行动抵消，而冲突对非石油领域的宏观溢出效应对原油基本面影响可忽略不计。

📊 Per-Article Analysis (15 items)

Date	Source	Article	Supply	Demand	Geo Risk	Impact	Reasoning
2026-03-24 19:49	Investing.com	Iran war disrupting UK mortgage market at levels not seen si	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	LOW	-0.10	Macro spillover to non-oil sector, no immediate impact on crude demand, minimal bearish weight.
2026-03-24 19:48	Investing.com-Cmd	Iran rains missiles onto Israel and mocks Trump’s talk of jo	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.90	P1 active military escalation signal, Iran explicitly rejects de-escalation, raising extreme Strait of Hormuz supply dis
2026-03-24 19:44	AlJazeera	Lebanon declares Iranian ambassador persona non grata amid I	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.10	Minor regional diplomatic escalation, incremental risk of broader conflict spillover.
2026-03-24 19:37	GoogleNews	Oil back above $100 a barrel as conflicting claims emerge on	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.10	Market commentary on already priced-in conflicting narratives, no new material signal for fundamentals.
2026-03-24 19:33	Investing.com-Cmd	Which sectors to buy if Trump strikes a deal with Iran? Wolf	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Market commentary on hypothetical scenario, no new material fundamental signal.
2026-03-24 19:31	OilPrice.com	Indian Refiners Cautious Over Iranian Oil Despite U.S. Waive	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.25	Supply signal, reduces expected Iranian oil export volumes, tightening global crude availability.
2026-03-24 19:22	AlJazeera	How does the current global oil crisis compare with the 1973	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Stale historical analysis, no impact on current oil pricing.
2026-03-24 19:13	SeekingAlpha	Bahrain pitches UN resolution to secure Hormuz shipping; Gul	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.30	P4 geopolitical risk signal, raises likelihood of broader regional conflict escalating Strait of Hormuz disruption risk.
2026-03-24 18:39	AlJazeera	Amazon says AWS Bahrain region ‘disrupted’ following drone a	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.10	Indicates regional drone activity risk near Gulf infrastructure, minor incremental geopolitical risk premium.
2026-03-24 18:30	OilPrice.com	Valero Shuts Major Refinery After Explosion as Fuel Markets	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.30	Unplanned shutdown of 335kb/d Port Arthur refinery tightens refined product markets, supporting crude demand and prices.
2026-03-24 17:35	Finnhub:Reuters	Iran arrests 466 people accused of online activity undermini	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Stale domestic Iranian development with no impact on oil supply or geopolitical risk.
2026-03-24 16:16	Finnhub:Reuters	German president calls Iran war a disastrous mistake, in rar	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Political commentary with no material impact on oil supply or demand fundamentals.
2026-03-24 15:45	FMP	Be Water Restocks on Amazon Following Initial Inventory Sell	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Unrelated consumer goods news, no impact on oil markets.
2026-03-24 15:34	FMP	Venezuela owed Eni around $3.3 billion at end of 2025, annua	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Stale historical debt disclosure, no impact on current Venezuelan oil production or exports.
2026-03-24 15:02	TruthSocial	Oil prices and markets see relief after Trump hits the brake	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	-0.15	P4 negotiation signal, discounted 60% as Iran explicitly rejected talks, minimal residual impact.

Signal Notes

Rolling 7-day sentiment: +0.714
Direction: BULLISH for 55 consecutive period(s)
Sentiment velocity: +0.6588/day (趋势拐点)
Micro(CHOPPY): momentum +0.0550, 短线震荡 ⚡
⚠ MICRO ALERT: Significant short-term sentiment shift detected
Divergence(1h): DISTRIBUTION_WARNING (price +0.68, sent -0.1000)
⚠ Divergence: 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)
CAUTION: Price-sentiment divergence (DISTRIBUTION_WARNING)

🔍 Manual Analysis Input

📢 Trump / Truth Social (10 posts, 2 oil-relevant)

Time	Post
2026-03-24 16:06	OIL 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens. Stocks are pointing to a muted open Tuesday following a rally to open the week after President Trump s
2026-03-24 13:48	Democrats are desperate to keep illegals, no matter how bad or dangerous they me be, in the Country. They want them to VOTE! That’s why they are fight
2026-03-24 12:12	RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/116282191339559931
2026-03-24 07:18	There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAP
2026-03-23 22:29	RT @ realDonaldTrump I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were
2026-03-23 22:29	OIL RT @ realDonaldTrump I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AN
2026-03-23 22:28	For years, Democrats ignored Violent and Vicious Crime of all shapes, sizes, colors, and types. Violent Criminals who should have been locked up were
2026-03-23 22:10	Trump administration cancels $109M in environmentally focused transportation grants for Colorado: https:// coloradosun.com/2025/12/16/tru mp-administr
2026-03-23 22:09	Questions Grow as Lt. Michael Byrd, Who Shot Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, Operates a Taxpayer-Funded Home Daycare as $190 Million in Federal Child Care Fu
2026-03-23 22:09	https://www. theepochtimes.com/us/oklahoma- black-lives-matter-leader-indicted-over-alleged-3-15-million-embezzlement-5957229 [Link: Oklahoma Black Li

Sentiment History

Timestamp	Score	Direction	Confidence	WTI	EIA Signal	Regime
2026-03-24 20:12	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$91.10	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 20:05	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$90.50	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 19:56	+0.600	BULLISH	0.78	$90.64	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 19:41	+0.650	BULLISH	0.80	$90.44	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 19:32	+0.650	BULLISH	0.75	$90.40	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 19:15	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$90.49	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 19:05	+0.850	BULLISH	0.92	$90.42	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 18:58	+0.850	BULLISH	0.92	$89.95	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 18:49	+0.850	BULLISH	0.90	$90.08	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 18:02	+0.750	BULLISH	0.82	$90.85	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 17:41	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.09	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:54	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$90.37	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:38	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$90.31	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:32	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$90.28	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:25	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$90.35	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:15	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$90.78	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 15:05	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:57	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.24	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:51	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$90.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 14:34	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:48	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$92.05	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:41	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:33	+0.550	BULLISH	0.82	$91.65	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:26	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.88	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:16	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.48	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:09	+0.800	BULLISH	0.85	$91.57	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 13:02	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:53	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:46	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.81	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:39	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.92	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:30	+0.650	BULLISH	0.80	$91.93	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 12:14	+0.700	BULLISH	0.82	$91.69	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:29	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.53	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:11	+0.550	BULLISH	0.75	$91.40	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:02	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.19	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:55	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.34	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:47	+0.700	BULLISH	0.75	$91.43	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:22	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:14	+0.600	BULLISH	0.78	$91.52	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:57	+0.600	BULLISH	0.82	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF