🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

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⚡ Real-Time Engine

Status: RUNNING Polls: 141 Last Score: 2026-03-24 11:11 Last News: 2026-03-24 11:12 Last Trump: 2026-03-24 11:12

Trading Signal

BUY_OIL

HIGH confidence STRONG Strength: 0.62 Trend: 22d

Composite Sentiment

+0.550

🟢 BULLISH | 20 articles from 9 sources
Last refresh: 2026-03-24 11:12

WTI Crude Oil

$91.40

per barrel

EIA Inventory

+6.2 MM bbl

BEARISH_BUILD

Market Regime

RISK OFF

Supply Outlook

TIGHTENING

Ongoing Iran conflict risks disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil shipments
Valero Port Arthur refinery fire temporarily reduces US refining throughput
Japan's planned SPR release provides minimal offset to supply risks

Demand Outlook

STABLE

Airlines facing fuel price hikes have not yet signaled broad capacity cuts
No major negative demand signals from macroeconomic data in the latest cycle

News Sources

FMP: 4
AlJazeera: 3
GoogleNews: 3
SeekingAlpha: 3
Investing.com-Cmd: 2
Investing.com: 2
Finnhub:Reuters: 1
Finnhub:CNBC: 1
OilPrice.com: 1

⏱ Micro Velocity (15m scalping)ALERT

↘ -0.100

15m

↘ -0.050

30m

↘ -0.100

↘ -0.050

状态

FADING

急速下行 ❄️

动量: -0.0800 平均Δ: -0.0750 ⚠ 短线显著变化!

⚡ Sentiment Velocity

↗ +3.200

12h

↗ +2.200

24h

↘ -0.150

48h

↗ +0.275

趋势

ACCELERATING

加速上行

平均速度: +1.3812/day | 加速度: +2.9250 (短期加速快于长期)

🔀 Price × Sentiment Divergence

窗口	象限	价格Δ	情绪Δ	背离
1h	横盘	-0.15 (-0.2%)	-0.0500	○
4h	确认上涨	+2.30 (+2.6%)	+0.2000	○
24h	确认下跌	-7.14 (-7.2%)	-0.1500	○

➤ 主窗口(1h): 价格与情绪变化均较小 — 横盘震荡

⚠ 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)

🤖 AI Analysis — doubao-seed-2-0-pro-260215

+0.550

Confidence: 0.75

Iran denial of peace talks keeps Middle East conflict risk premium intact, no immediate de-escalation
Fire at Valero Port Arthur (largest US refinery) constrains near-term product supply, supporting crude prices
Trump's Iran ultimatum extension avoids immediate military action but does not reduce underlying supply disruption risk

Trading: {"action": "LONG", "size": "half", "stop_loss": "WTI breaks below $88.0/bbl", "take_profit": "WTI hits $96.0/bbl or confirmed de-escalation of Iran conflict", "timeframe": "swing_2d"}

{"action": "做多", "size": "半仓", "stop_loss": "WTI跌破88美元/桶", "take_profit": "WTI触及96美元/桶或伊朗冲突确认缓和", "timeframe": "2日波段"}

Key Risks: Sudden confirmed Iran-US ceasefire announcement leading to sharp selloff of geopolitical risk premium | Valero refinery fire contained quickly with minimal long-term operational impact

美伊突然宣布确认停火，导致地缘风险溢价大幅回落，油价暴跌 | 瓦莱罗炼厂火灾被快速控制，长期运营影响极小

WTI is expected to see 1.5-3.0% intraday volatility with a moderate bullish bias, supported by persistent Middle East supply risks and a major US refinery outage, with no confirmed de-escalation of the Iran conflict to reduce risk premiums.

WTI预计日内波动幅度1.5-3.0%，呈中度看涨倾向，受持续的中东供应风险和美国大型炼厂停运支撑，目前尚无伊朗冲突确认缓和的信号来压低风险溢价。

▶ Reasoning / 推理过程

First, P1-level geopolitical risk remains the dominant driver: Iran's official denial of peace talks invalidates Trump's unconfirmed negotiation signals, keeping Gulf supply disruption risks high, while the ultimatum extension only avoids immediate conflict rather than resolving underlying tensions. Second, the Valero Port Arthur refinery fire is a supply-side bullish factor that further supports prices. Third, lower-priority signals including Japan's SPR release and Ecuador's industry issues have minimal offsetting impact. Time decay for all recent key signals is limited, with core conflict signals still retaining over 90% of their impact.

首先，P1级别的地缘风险仍是核心驱动：伊朗官方否认和谈，推翻了特朗普未经证实的谈判信号，海湾供应中断风险维持高位，而最后通牒延期仅避免了即时冲突，并未化解根本紧张局势。其次，瓦莱罗亚瑟港炼厂火灾是供应端利多因素，进一步支撑油价。第三，日本释放SPR、厄瓜多尔产业问题等低优先级信号的抵消影响极小。所有近期关键信号的时间衰减有限，核心冲突信号仍保留90%以上的影响。

📊 Per-Article Analysis (20 items)

Date	Source	Article	Supply	Demand	Geo Risk	Impact	Reasoning
2026-03-24 10:51	Investing.com-Cmd	Asia stocks cautiously higher amid conflicting signals on Ir	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Market commentary reflecting current sentiment, no new fundamental signal for oil prices.
2026-03-24 09:48	Investing.com	Japan’s core inflation slows below BOJ target, complicates r	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	NONE	-0.01	Japanese inflation data has negligible impact on global oil demand outlook.
2026-03-24 09:46	OilPrice.com	Chinese Publication Claims U.S. Has Two Months of Rare Earth	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.05	Unverified rare earth supply claim could potentially extend conflict duration, but impact is highly speculative and mini
2026-03-24 09:42	Investing.com	NZ central bank warns prolonged energy shock could force rat	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	NONE	-0.02	Hypothetical rate hike warning from a small central bank has negligible impact on global oil demand.
2026-03-24 09:14	Investing.com-Cmd	Valero oil refinery in Port Arthur hit by fire after massive	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.58	Fire at the largest US refinery reduces near-term refining capacity, supporting crude and product prices, with minimal t
2026-03-24 08:44	Finnhub:Reuters	Shares rally, oil rebounds as Trump extends Iran ultimatum -	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	-0.24	Ultimatum extension delays immediate military strikes, temporarily reducing short-term volatility but not underlying con
2026-03-24 08:30	GoogleNews	Airlines Flag 100% Fuel Hike Amid Middle East Conflict - Mex	NEUTRAL	BEARISH	NONE	-0.05	Airlines facing higher fuel costs have not announced broad capacity cuts, so demand impact is minimal for now.
2026-03-24 08:24	SeekingAlpha	California sues Trump administration over Sable oil pipeline	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	LOW	-0.03	Lawsuit delays potential pipeline restart, with minimal impact on near-term US crude supply.
2026-03-24 08:00	AlJazeera	Iran war live: Tehran says Trump’s peace talk claims are ‘fa	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	HIGH	+0.78	Iran's official denial of peace talks eliminates near-term de-escalation hopes, keeping Gulf supply disruption risk prem
2026-03-24 07:54	AlJazeera	Trump says Iran ‘wants peace’ after US military did ‘great j	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	-0.08	Unconfirmed peace claim is a negotiation signal discounted 60%, and has been refuted by Iran's official denial, with min
2026-03-24 07:26	SeekingAlpha	Dynagas LNG: European Sanctions And The Loss Of Qatar LNG Cr	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	LNG market analysis, no direct impact on crude oil fundamentals.
2026-03-24 06:44	SeekingAlpha	Oil States selects CFO Hadjik as new President and CEO with	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Corporate leadership change has no impact on oil supply or demand fundamentals.
2026-03-24 06:33	FMP	Bausch + Lomb Corporation (BLCO) Discusses Glaucoma Pipeline	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Unrelated to oil markets, no impact.
2026-03-24 06:31	GoogleNews	Ecuador's Broken Oil Industry: Criminal Networks Impact - Di	BULLISH	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.04	Ecuador is a small oil producer, so criminal network impacts on its industry have negligible global supply impact.
2026-03-24 06:30	FMP	Nervous About the Oil Crisis? This Market-Crushing Stock is	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Stock recommendation unrelated to oil price fundamentals, no impact.
2026-03-24 06:25	Finnhub:CNBC	Jim Cramer says Monday’s market rally may be short-lived	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NONE	+0.00	Market analyst commentary, no new fundamental signal for oil prices.
2026-03-24 05:51	FMP	Oil rises with Brent crossing $100 a barrel again as Middle	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	+0.00	Market commentary reflecting already priced-in geopolitical risk premium, no new signal.
2026-03-24 05:45	FMP	Japan to start releasing oil from joint stockpiles by end-Ma	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	NONE	-0.10	Planned SPR release is a small offset to geopolitical supply risks, with limited impact on global balances.
2026-03-24 05:34	AlJazeera	Have Israel, the US and Iran violated international law?	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	LOW	+0.00	Stale legal analysis already fully priced in, no impact on crude supply or prices.
2026-03-24 05:10	GoogleNews	Oil Is Back Under $100. Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to No Nuc	BEARISH	NEUTRAL	MEDIUM	-0.07	Unverified nuclear agreement claim is discounted 60% and refuted by Iran, with negligible pricing impact.

Signal Notes

Rolling 7-day sentiment: +0.621
Direction: BULLISH for 22 consecutive period(s)
Sentiment velocity: +1.3812/day (加速上行)
Micro(FADING): momentum -0.0800, 急速下行 ❄️
⚠ MICRO ALERT: Significant short-term sentiment shift detected
⚠ Divergence: 已过滤 988 条无效记录 (score≤0.01，可能原因: 系统离线/重启)
STRONG: Momentum + price alignment confirmed

🔍 Manual Analysis Input

📢 Trump / Truth Social (11 posts, 3 oil-relevant)

Time	Post
2026-03-24 07:18	There is a very important Special Election tomorrow, Tuesday, March 24th, for Florida State House District 87 in beautiful Palm Beach County — JON MAP
2026-03-24 04:47	OIL Oil rises as markets assess supply risks after Iran denies US talks. Oil prices rose in early trade on Tuesday on supply fears, as Iran denied it had
2026-03-23 22:29	RT @ realDonaldTrump I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were
2026-03-23 22:29	OIL RT @ realDonaldTrump I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AN
2026-03-23 22:28	For years, Democrats ignored Violent and Vicious Crime of all shapes, sizes, colors, and types. Violent Criminals who should have been locked up were
2026-03-23 22:10	Trump administration cancels $109M in environmentally focused transportation grants for Colorado: https:// coloradosun.com/2025/12/16/tru mp-administr
2026-03-23 22:09	Questions Grow as Lt. Michael Byrd, Who Shot Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, Operates a Taxpayer-Funded Home Daycare as $190 Million in Federal Child Care Fu
2026-03-23 22:09	https://www. theepochtimes.com/us/oklahoma- black-lives-matter-leader-indicted-over-alleged-3-15-million-embezzlement-5957229 [Link: Oklahoma Black Li
2026-03-23 22:08	Kelsey Grammer calls Trump ‘one of the greatest presidents we’ve ever had’ at Kennedy Center Honors: https:// nypost.com/2025/12/08/entertai nment/kel
2026-03-23 20:57	I am a BIG proponent of ICE wearing masks as they search for, and are forced to deal with, hardened criminals, many of whom were let into our Country

Sentiment History

Timestamp	Score	Direction	Confidence	WTI	EIA Signal	Regime
2026-03-24 11:11	+0.550	BULLISH	0.75	$91.40	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 11:02	+0.650	BULLISH	0.82	$91.19	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:55	+0.600	BULLISH	0.75	$91.34	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:47	+0.700	BULLISH	0.75	$91.43	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:22	+0.650	BULLISH	0.85	$91.71	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 10:14	+0.600	BULLISH	0.78	$91.52	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:57	+0.600	BULLISH	0.82	$91.55	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:41	+0.700	BULLISH	0.85	$91.23	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:34	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$91.17	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:24	+0.750	BULLISH	0.88	$91.37	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 09:16	+0.750	BULLISH	0.85	$90.50	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 08:59	+0.200	BULLISH	0.65	$90.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:53	+0.500	BULLISH	0.75	$90.38	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:45	+0.300	BULLISH	0.65	$90.21	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:32	+0.300	BULLISH	0.72	$90.01	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:23	+0.050	NEUTRAL	0.65	$89.64	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:17	+0.250	BULLISH	0.62	$89.72	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 08:10	+0.220	BULLISH	0.62	$89.48	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:55	+0.400	BULLISH	0.68	$88.77	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:40	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$88.63	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:35	+0.350	BULLISH	0.62	$88.65	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 07:04	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$89.10	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:58	+0.300	BULLISH	0.58	$89.03	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:51	+0.350	BULLISH	0.68	$89.02	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:43	+0.250	BULLISH	0.60	$88.98	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:21	+0.250	BULLISH	0.72	$89.33	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:14	+0.000	NEUTRAL	0.72	$88.93	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:10	+0.000	NEUTRAL	0.72	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 06:03	+0.000	NEUTRAL	0.68	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RANGE_BOUND
2026-03-24 05:57	-0.100	NEUTRAL	0.72	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:50	-0.150	BEARISH	0.72	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:43	-0.150	BEARISH	0.68	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:36	-0.300	BEARISH	0.75	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:29	-0.400	BEARISH	0.75	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:23	-0.450	BEARISH	0.72	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:16	-0.350	BEARISH	0.72	$88.87	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:11	-0.250	BEARISH	0.70	$88.88	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 05:05	-0.150	BEARISH	0.72	$88.89	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 04:59	-0.420	BEARISH	0.72	$88.91	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF
2026-03-24 04:53	-0.400	BEARISH	0.72	$89.17	BEARISH_BUILD	RISK_OFF