🛢️ Crude Oil Sentiment Dashboard

First, the active US/Israel strikes on Iran qualify as a P1 active military action signal, the highest priority, which creates material risk of damage to Iranian oil infrastructure and retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz that accounts for ~20% of global oil supply. Second, Goldman Sachs' forecast of 17 million bpd peak supply losses confirms the scale of the potential disruption, validating the extreme supply risk. Third, the IEA's emergency release signal is a lower-priority P2 signal that can only modify the bullish direction by a maximum of 15 points, so it does not offset the dominant P1 supply risk. Time decay is minimal as the strike news is less than 1 hour old, with a half-life of 48 hours for war/conflict escalation signals. Confidence is high due to multiple independent confirming signals and the clear historical market reaction to Middle East military events impacting core oil supply routes.

首先，美国和以色列对伊朗的主动打击属于最高优先级的P1主动军事行动信号，存在伊朗石油基础设施受损、伊朗报复关闭占全球石油供应约20%的霍尔木兹海峡的实质性风险。其次，高盛预测供应损失峰值可达1700万桶/日，证实了潜在中断的规模，验证了极端供应风险。第三，国际能源署的紧急释储信号是优先级较低的P2信号，最多只能将看涨方向调整15个点，无法抵消主导性的P1供应风险。由于打击消息发布不足1小时，时间衰减极小，战争/冲突升级信号的半衰期为48小时。由于存在多个独立的确认信号，且历史上中东军事事件影响核心石油供应路线时市场反应明确，因此信心很高。